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USDA WASDE, October 2026: U.S. 2026/27 soybean ending stocks 315 million bu vs 310 in September
Free preview of a Pro release brief. Figures are taken from the official USDA WASDE October 2026 text file [1]. AI-assisted, rule-checked. Information only — not advice; verify against the source.
In brief
- U.S. 2026/27 soybean yield raised to 53.1 bu/acre from 52.8; production 4,562 million bu (prior 4,535).[1]
- Beginning stocks lowered to 315 million bu from 325; exports raised to 1,695 from 1,685; crush unchanged at 2,780.[1]
- Ending stocks projected at 315 million bu vs 310 in September. Brazil 2026/27 production unchanged at 186.0 MMT.[1]
1 · Key numbers — U.S. soybeans
| U.S. soybeans | 2025/26 est. | 2026/27 Sep | 2026/27 Oct | Δ m/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area planted (million acres) | 81.2 | 86.9 | 86.9 | 0 |
| Area harvested (million acres) | 80.4 | 85.9 | 85.9 | 0 |
| Yield (bu/acre) | 53.0 | 52.8 | 53.1 | +0.3 |
| Beginning stocks (million bu) | 325 | 325 | 315 | −10 |
| Production (million bu) | 4,261 | 4,535 | 4,562 | +27 |
| Total supply (million bu) | 4,608 | 4,885 | 4,902 | +17 |
| Crush (million bu) | 2,646 | 2,780 | 2,780 | 0 |
| Exports (million bu) | 1,515 | 1,685 | 1,695 | +10 |
| Total use (million bu) | 4,293 | 4,575 | 4,587 | +12 |
| Ending stocks (million bu) | 315 | 310 | 315 | +5 |
| Season-average farm price ($/bu) | 10.50 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 0 |
Source: USDA WASDE-676, "U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use", page 15 [1]. Δ m/m = October projection minus September projection.
2 · World soybeans, 2026/27
| 2026/27, million metric tons | Sep proj. | Oct proj. | Δ m/m |
|---|---|---|---|
| World — production | 442.35 | 442.70 | +0.35 |
| World — ending stocks | 124.02 | 124.28 | +0.26 |
| United States — production | 123.42 | 124.15 | +0.73 |
| United States — exports | 45.86 | 46.13 | +0.27 |
| Argentina — production | 50.00 | 50.00 | 0 |
| Argentina — crush | 43.00 | 43.50 | +0.50 |
| Brazil — production | 186.00 | 186.00 | 0 |
| Brazil — exports | 118.00 | 118.00 | 0 |
| China — imports | 115.00 | 115.00 | 0 |
Source: USDA WASDE-676, "World Soybean Supply and Use", page 28 [1].
3 · What changed
- Supply: a higher yield (+0.3 bu/acre) lifted production by 27 million bu, partly offset by beginning stocks 10 million bu lower; total supply up 17 million bu to 4,902.
- Demand: exports raised 10 million bu to 1,695; crush unchanged at 2,780; total use 4,587.
- Balance: ending stocks 315 million bu (September: 310). Season-average farm price projection unchanged at $12.00/bu.
- Soybean oil (U.S.): 2026/27 imports raised to 700 million lb from 600; ending stocks 1,797 million lb vs 1,877.
- South America: Brazil production and exports unchanged (186.0 / 118.0 MMT); Argentina crush raised to 43.5 MMT from 43.0.
4 · On the calendar next
- Mon 26 Oct, 16:00 ET — USDA NASS Crop Progress (harvest pace)
- Tue 10 Nov, 12:00 ET — USDA WASDE + Crop Production
- Fri 13 Nov, 09:00 Brasília — CONAB 2nd 2026/27 grain survey
- Mon 16 Nov, 12:00 ET — NOPA monthly crush (October data)
5 · Method & AI disclosure
Figures were extracted automatically from USDA's official text release by BeanBrief's WASDE adapter and are shown exactly as published (USDA units). Narrative sections are drafted with AI under fixed rules (facts only; every number must appear in the extracted data) and pass automated checks before publication. We do not add price forecasts, expectations or opinions. Corrections: [email protected].
Sources
- USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 Oct 2026. https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1026.txt (PDF: wasde1026.pdf)
- USDA WASDE release schedule 2026. usda.gov — WASDE Report
- USDA NASS release calendar. nass.usda.gov
- CONAB, Calendário de divulgação 2026. gov.br/conab
- NOPA, 2026 statistics reporting dates. nopa.org (PDF)
⚠ Information only — not advice. BeanBrief aggregates and summarises publicly released information from official sources for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, trading or procurement advice, or a recommendation regarding any futures contract or physical transaction. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. Figures may contain errors; always verify against the original source. Release dates and times are set by the issuing agencies and may change — check the agency.
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